Taipei, Taiwan – With just weeks left in office, outgoing United States President Joe Biden and his team are trying to secure billions of dollars in funding to relocate chip manufacturing to the US.
Signed introduced by Biden in 2022the CHIPS and Science Act set aside $280bn in funding to boost domestic semiconductor research and manufacturing in the US, including $39bn in subsidies, loans and tax credits for both US and foreign companies.
The law received bipartisan support in Congress and was widely welcomed in both Democratic and Republican states eager to attract state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities and create jobs.
But with President-elect Donald Trump set to take office on Jan. 20, the future of the CHIPS Act now appears uncertain, leaving Biden's administration scrambling to complete complex negotiations with chipmakers and distribute funds.
During an appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast shortly before the election, Trump blasted the legislation as "so bad."
"We put up billions of dollars for rich companies," Trump said.
Trump also accused places like Taiwan, home to the world's leading maker of advanced semiconductors, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), of "stealing" the chip industry from the US.
Most of the 24 recipients of funds under the CHIPS Act are American companies, chief among them Intel, which last month secured nearly $7.9 billion in direct funding from the US Department of Commerce.
Four East Asian companies have also signed on to the CHIPS Act: TSMC and GlobalWafers from Taiwan, and Samsung and SK Hynix from South Korea.
In recent weeks, the Commerce Department finalized its agreements with TSMC and GlobalWafers, after earlier signing non-binding memoranda of agreement.
TSMC locked in $6.6bn in grants and $5bn in loans to build four facilities in Arizona, while GlobalWafers finalized a deal to receive $406m to build facilities in Missouri and Texas.
Trump cannot unilaterally repeal the CHIPS Act because it was passed by the US Congress, but analysts say he could make it difficult for the law to function as intended.
As president, he could block or slow the Commerce Department in distributing funds, possibly as part of cost-cutting efforts led by the new so-called Department of Government Efficiency. led by tech mogul Elon Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
Dan Hutcheson, vice chairman of California-based Tech Insights, said Trump could also simply try to renegotiate some of the provisions of the CHIPS Act or repackage elements of it under new legislation.
Trump pulled a similar maneuver in 2018, signing the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement to replace the substantially similar North American Free Trade Agreement, Hutcheson said.
The Trump administration borrowed heavily from the wording of NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free trade agreement with Asia proposed by former President Barack Obama, for the revised deal.
"What (Trump) really wants is to get his brand on everything ... and you see that with all his hotels and resorts and everything else," Hutcheson told Al Jazeera.
"That's his typical modus operandi, which I think you can expect will happen with the CHIPS Act."
Among the Asian partners of the CHIPS Act, Taiwan's TSMC has made the most visible efforts to increase US investment.
After earlier signing a non-binding memorandum of agreement, the Taiwanese company locked up $6.6 billion in grants and $5 billion in loans last month to build four semiconductor manufacturing plants in Arizona.
Other Asian companies have moved less quickly, deterred by the delays of the past two years and their own business challenges, according to Chim Lee, a senior analyst for China and Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
In April, Samsung signed a non-binding agreement to spend $45bn expanding its production facilities in Texas in exchange for $6.4bn in grants.
Eight months later, there has been no announcement of any progress on the deal.
In October, the South Korean tech giant issued a rare public apology after posting disappointing third-quarter results that it blamed on competition from its Chinese rivals.
There were also no further updates on the status of non-binding agreements, announced in April and July respectively, for SK Hynix to build a $3.87 billion facility in Indiana and GlobalWafers to commit $4 billion in silicon wafer manufacturing investing in Texas and Missouri.
Yachi Chiang, a technology law professor at the National Taiwan Ocean University, said many people in Taiwan think the Trump administration will ask TSMC to invest more than the $65 billion it has promised to build three Arizona plants in exchange for US subsidies.
With the change of administration, companies may be less eager to expand negotiations further, said the EIU's Lee.
“Re-negotiations could prolong the distribution of funds, if not undermine some of them. The allocation (of funds) has already taken more than two years since the bill's approval. Businesses don't like to wait, and they don't like uncertainty," he told Al Jazeera.
"Of course it goes both ways. For some companies, production in the US is so expensive that they will not commit to investment unless there are strong incentives."
Asia's tech companies have other incentives to keep production closer to home.
South Korea and Taiwan introduced their own equivalents of the CHIPS Act last year to promote subsidies and tax breaks for firms that invest locally.
Earlier this year, Japan approved $3.9 billion in subsidies to domestic chipmaker Rapidus, and Tokyo aims to spend as much as $65 billion through public and private sector financing to catch up with its chipmaker neighbors.
Meanwhile, China recently pledged $45 billion to bolster its chip industry in the face of U.S. export controls and other efforts to curb its acquisition of advanced technology.
Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs told Al Jazeera it would not be appropriate to comment on the CHIPS law before Trump takes office.
However, Taipei has signaled to Trump that it is listening to his concerns.
Shortly after Trump's election victory, The Financial Times reported that Taiwan was considering a $15 billion arms purchase deal to show the president-elect he was "serious" about his defense after his criticism that he should spend more on his military.
At the same time, there are political problems across East Asia, creating further uncertainty about how governments will respond to the Trump administration and its economic demands.
While Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te can connect with Trump as head of state, he is constrained policy-wise at home by an opposition that has a majority in the legislature.
In South Korea, Han Duck-soo serves as a caretaker leader as the country's constitutional court considers whether to remove Yoon Suk-yeol from office following his impeachment over a brief declaration of martial law.
In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba leads a minority government after his Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in parliament following a snap election in October.
A second election for Japan's upper house of parliament is scheduled for next year, portending further uncertainty.
William Reinsch, a senior adviser with the economic program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the CHIPS Act is just one of many issues on the minds of East Asia's leaders.
"I would expect Korea, Taiwan and Japan to look at the whole picture of how to maintain good relations with the US rather than just focusing on the CHIPS Act," Reinsch told Al Jazeera.
"You should expect them to think seriously about investing more in the U.S., spending more money on their own defense budgets, and thinking about how best to align themselves with U.S. policy toward China."
Source link