What to expect from global central banks in 2025 after the Fed tapers

The President of the Federal Reserve of the United States, Jerome Powell, speaks during a press conference where he announced that the Fed has cut interest rates by a quarter of a point after a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, United States, on 18 December 2024. .

Kevin Lamarque Reuters

The Federal Reserve of the United States turuti markets Wednesday after raising the inflation outlook and signaling fewer rate cuts next yearleaving investors struggling to assess how it could affect global interest rates looking ahead.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said inflation was moving sideways this year and suggested the bank could cut rates just twice in 2025 — twice less than indicated in September .

Although global central banks insist on independence in their monetary policy decisions, a stronger US dollar on the back of higher interest rates - and potentially inflationary tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump - makes the prospects for easing policy around the world more uncertain.

"When you have a more hawkish Fed, it leads to a stronger US dollar and a tightening of global financial conditions," said Qian Wang, Vanguard's chief Asia-Pacific economist.

This is especially true in many emerging markets, she added. "I think central banks in Asia are generally moving towards easing, but because this Fed will stay higher for longer, there will be less room for tapering."

CNBC takes a look at what may be in store for global central bank monetary policy in 2025.

Asia

The Fed's cautious stance on future rate cuts sent most Asian currencies reeling on Thursday. The Japanese yen it fell 0.74% to 155.94 against the greenback, hitting a one-month low. South Korea won, meanwhile, hovering near its weakest level since March 2009 and the Indian rupees fell to a record low, falling below the 85 mark against the US dollar.

Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda attends a press conference after a two-day monetary policy meeting at the BOJ headquarters in Tokyo on October 31, 2024.

Richard A. Brooks | Getty Images

The Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan on Thursday kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.25%, they choose to take the time to assess the impact of financial and foreign exchange markets on Japan's economic activity and prices. The BOJ said in its statement that the decision to maintain was split 8-1, with board member Naoki Tamura in favor of an increase of 25 basis points.

According to Shigeto Nagai, head of the Japan Economy at Oxford Economics, the Fed's more cautious stance on rate cuts in 2025 will increase the risk of further dollar strength.

"The weak yen could return as a key driver of the BOJ's rate decision in 2025 if the US dollar strengthens further as financial markets get a clear picture of Trump's policies," he said. .

"A weaker yen will continue to be a risk for the BOJ in 2025 as it will disrupt the dynamics of wage-led inflation by squeezing real incomes."

The People's Bank of China

China's top leadership surprised the market this month by showing a change its monetary policy stance after 14 years. The world's second largest economy is looking to switch its policy stance next year to "moderately loose" from "prudent" - a phrase that has been used since the depth of the global financial crisis in 2008 .

Analysts said the Fed's revised outlook on future rate cuts is unlikely to have a major influence on the trajectory of policy easing by China's central bank, although it could put pressure on the Chinese yuan.

"The PBOC needs to focus on fighting deflation. We do not think that domestic interest rate policy will be greatly influenced by the Fed's interest rate decision - both in the short term and also long-term," said Edmund Goh, head of China fixed income at Abrdn.

“They will be concerned about them RMB (yuan) weakness but if it is a controlled depreciation against USD along with other currencies, they will probably let RMB slide slowly."

Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International, said the PBOC may want to focus on domestic factors. "If the Fed cuts more aggressively, the PBOC has more room to cut. So, I don't think the Fed will be a big problem for the PBOC, probably that means the yuan will be under pressure to depreciates."

Sanjay Malhotra, governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), during a news conference in Mumbai, India, on Wednesday, December 11, 2024. India's central bank governor, Malhotra, who has just been appointed, said that he will seek to maintain stability and continuity in India. politics in his role. Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Reserve Bank of India

Bank of Korea

South Korea's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last month in a a surprise moveas the country strives to strengthen its economy amid growth concerns. This was the first time the Bank of Korea enacted two cuts back to back since 2009.

Like many of its Asian peers, Korea's central bank is trying to strike a balance between supporting its currency while boosting growth.

According to Chong Hoon Park of Standard Chartered Bank Korea, while the Fed's latest rate outlook and the resulting dollar appreciation may introduce short-term pressures, they are unlikely to derail the dovish trajectory of the BOK.

"The BOK seems resolute in prioritizing growth, betting on a robust economic recovery to attract capital inflows and strengthen the KRW (Korean won) in the medium term," Park said.

"Furthermore, the National Pension Service (NPS) is ready to increase its FX swap lines if necessary to stabilize the KRW. Although this tool has never been utilized, its availability provide a credible backstop to cushion the dollar's strength and protect Korean businesses from external shocks."

Europe

European markets fell on Thursday following the Fed's comments, and currency markets reacted as well. The moves were more muted than in Asia, however, with the euros strengthening around 0.5% against the dollar and British sterling rose 0.1% against the greenback. The dollar fell around 0.4% against the Swiss francmeanwhile.

Central banks across the continent are typically less affected by Fed moves - and the strength of the dollar - than emerging markets, which often rely more on foreign investment and dollar-denominated debt.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks to reporters after the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council in Frankfurt, Germany, on September 12, 2024.

Jana Rodenbusch Reuters

European Central Bank

The European Central Bank last week announced its fourth rate cut this year, it confirms expectations for a quarter-percentage point move and lowers its inflation forecast for this year and next.

Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury, said the impact of Powell's comments on the ECB was likely to be "relatively modest but not zero," adding that the bank was more likely to be influenced by Trump's policies.

"The outlook for the US and euro zone economies going into next year is quite contrasting," Ryan told CNBC Thursday, noting that the euro zone's growth -euro is still fragile and vulnerable to harsh commercial policies.

"The biggest impact of Trump 2.0 will be weaker growth," he added.

The ECB currently seems to be taking a more dovish stance and the lower rates next year, with money markets pricing in a cut in the ECB's key rate to 1.75% by October next year — down from 3%.

If the dollar strengthens further reach parity with the euro, however, the ECB may slow its pace of tapering, according to Ryan.

Swiss National Bank

Switzerland's central bank has been pushing ahead with its rate cuts, last week beating expectations with a 50-point base bumper reduction, while its main rate to 0.5%.

There, the impact of Fed policy may be somewhat greater. A stronger dollar and a weakening of the safe-haven Swiss franc could lead to a more hawkish stance from the SNB, according to Ryan - but this may not be a bad thing.

"The SNB doesn't have much room to keep lowering rates ... and going back to negative rates is something they want to avoid. (A stronger dollar) could potentially do some of the work for them," Ryan said. .

New central bank President Martin Schlegel told CNBC's Carolin Roth last week that the bank could not rule out a shift to negative interest rates as it tries to ensure that inflation "remains in -a range consistent with price stability."

Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, at the central bank's headquarters in the City of London, United Kingdom, on November 29, 2024.

Hollie Adams | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Bank of England

The Bank of England maintained stable rates as expected at its final meeting of the year on Thursday, but markets were surprised by the extent of the division among policymakers.

The bank still appears to be moving slowly on a rate cut next year, however, and money markets are now pricing in roughly 50 basis points of the next cut.

Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, said the impact of the Fed's comments on the Bank of England was likely to be minimal, noting that there was little repricing in the market after .

However, she said a higher dollar could weigh on sterling, raising inflation on imported goods and ultimately slowing the pace of the recession.

"Potentially there is a situation where both sterling and the euro weaken further against the dollar, leading to higher imported inflation, especially on fuel and to a lesser extent food. This limits the scope of banks to reduce the rates."


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *