OSLO (Reuters) - Norway's central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at a 16-year high of 4.50% on Thursday, as analysts in a Reuters poll had unanimously expected, and said it would raise interest rates next year. plans to start cutting borrowing costs in March.
"The committee judges that a restrictive monetary policy is still needed to stabilize inflation around the target, but that the time to ease monetary policy is fast approaching," Norges Bank Governor Ida Woldenbach said. said in a statement.
"Based on the committee's current assessment of the outlook, the policy rate is likely to be reduced in March 2025," Norges Bank said.
The Norwegian crown weakened to 11.77 against the euro at 0938 GMT, from 11.76 just before the announcement.
The Norwegian monetary policy stance contrasts with other western central banks, most of which have already started cutting rates this year as growth has slowed and inflation has eased from high levels in recent years.
Norway's economy has weathered relatively high interest rates, economists said, helped by rising business investment and wages, increased government spending and currency depreciation.
Norges Bank said the economy was holding up better than previously estimated, while inflationary pressures were much lower. Still, the outlook was unclear, it added.
"There is considerable uncertainty about the outlook for both the global and Norwegian economy," it said.
Twenty-eight participants polled by Reuters from Dec. 11-16 unanimously predicted the central bank would keep rates on hold on Thursday and almost all said it would begin cutting in the first quarter of 2025.
The bank highlighted the risk of a trade war between the United States and China as one of the issues it discussed, saying it was "concerned about the risk of an increase in international trade barriers".
"Higher tariffs will likely dampen global growth, but the implications for price prospects in Norway are uncertain," the bank said.
The US Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, as expected, but said further cuts depended on continued progress in reducing inflation.
Norges Bank said in September that the policy rate would remain unchanged until the end of the year before a gradual reduction from the first quarter of 2025.
The Nordic country's core inflation rose to 3% year-on-year in November from 2.7% in October, above the central bank's 2% target.
The Swedish central bank earlier on Thursday cut rates by 25 basis points, in line with expectations, and said it may ease policy again in the first half of 2025.
In Britain, the Bank of England is due to report the results of its latest rate meeting later on Thursday, with economists expecting a volatile borrowing cost.