Frayed expectations of more Fed cuts rattled markets

Traders work on the New York Stock Exchange on December 17, 2024.

NYSE

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to date on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

Cut now, but less ahead
The Federal Reserve of the United States
low interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, taking its overnight lending rate to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%. In the Fed's dot plot indicating expectations for rates in the coming years, the central bank indicated the most two rate cuts only for 2025less than the four cuts projected earlier in September.

The Bank of Japan has rates
The Bank of Japan on Thursday kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. After that, the yen weakened to a one-month low against the dollar. Analysts were divided about the BOJ's move: A CNBC poll showed 54% of respondents thought the BOJ would hold, while a poll of economists by Reuters expected the BOJ to raise rates.

Strong sales in the markets
American markets sold out suddenly on Wednesday. the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 1,000 points, falling 2.58% for the 10th day of losses. the S&P 500 withdraw 2.95% and the Nasdaq Composite sank 3.56%. On Thursday, the Asia-Pacific markets the fall of Wall Street followed. South Korea's Kospi index fell as much as 1.8%, one of the steepest falls in the region.

Disappointing guidance from Micron
shares of Micron fell more than 15% in extended trading after the company gave weaker guidance than expecteddespite beating expectations on earnings for its last quarter. For the current quarter, Micron expects revenue to come in at around $7.9 billion. That's well below the $8.98 billion expected by analysts, according to LSEG.

(PRO) 2025 expectations for European equities
As the year ends, the leading investment banks are delivering their outlook on the European market for 2025. Their views vary from cautiously optimistic to the more bullishalthough almost all expressed concern about geopolitics and trade tensions.

The bottom line

Wednesday's dramatic sell-off in the markets is a stark reminder that forecasts influence stock movements far more than actual circumstances.

The Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points. Borrowing costs will decrease and corporate investment should be stimulated, which should lead to job creation and boost growth. This, in turn, theoretically pushes stocks up.

But investors were already confident about Fed tapering on Wednesday. Before the conclusion of the Fed's December meeting, the futures market indicated a 98% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This means that investors had already priced the benefits of the rate cut into stocks. In other words, yesterday's decline will have little effect on stock prices.

Investors may already be pricing in more than one rate cut. A week ago, investors were betting on a 20.8% chance that the Fed will cut rates to 4%-4.25% in January.

The President of the Fed, Jerome Powell, dashed those hopes.

"With today's action, we have reduced our policy rate by a full percentage point from its peak, and our policy stance is now significantly less restrictive," Powell said in his post-meeting news conference. "We may therefore be more cautious as we consider further adjustments to our policy rate."

The possibility of a 25 basis point cut next month fell to 8.6%, according to the futures market, after the Fed released its updated dot plot indicating just two cuts to the 2025.

It is this change - from hopes that the Fed will go full throttle with cuts to the reality that it may even take its foot off the accelerator - that is sending tremors through the markets.

In other words: It's like waking up in anticipation of a present on Christmas day, only to find yourself missing the presents. That disappointment doesn't happen at any other time of the year.

As David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, wryly noted, "Good-bye punch bowl. No Christmas cheer from the Fed."

— CNBC's Daria Mercado, Jeff Cox, Yun Li, Brian Evans and Lisa Kailai Han contributed to this report.


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