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The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point but signaled a slower pace of easing next year, sending the dollar racing to a two-year high and US stocks sinking.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted Wednesday to cut federal funds the rate This is the third consecutive cut, from 4.25-4.5 per cent. The decision was not unanimous, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack casting the dissenting vote with a preference for keeping rates steady.
Officials' economic projections released alongside the rate decision pointed to fewer cuts than previously forecast for 2025, underscoring policymakers' concerns that cutting borrowing costs too quickly would be too much of a challenge in the world's largest economy. May undermine efforts to cool price hikes. Policymakers have also lifted their projections for inflation.
Wall Street stocks fell sharply after the decision, with the broader S&P 500 sinking nearly 3 percent. Many of the biggest winners retreated in a big 2024 rally: Elon Musk's carmaker Tesla fell 8 percent, Facebook parent Meta dropped 4 percent and Amazon shed 5 percent.
The price of US government bonds also fell, with the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield rising 0.11 percentage point to 4.35 percent. The dollar jumped more than 1 percent against a basket of six peers to hit its highest level since November 2022.
Mike Pugliese, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said the dollar has rallied since Donald Trump's election victory last month and hopes that his tariff threats will lead to higher inflation, but Wednesday's Fed decision added "fire has put more fuel on," said Mike Pugliese, senior economist at Wells Fargo.
Fed chief Jay Powell said that after Wednesday's cut, the central bank's policy settings were "significantly less restrictive" and that policymakers may be "more cautious" as they consider additional easing. He described the December decision as a "closer call" than previous meetings.
Inflation was moving "aside," Powell added, while risks to the labor market had "diminished."
Wall Street bank Morgan Stanley said the Fed's forecast for 2025 was "much more hokey than we expected".
The Fed's goal is to apply enough pressure to push up consumer demand and business activity inflation Return to the U.S. central bank's 2 percent target without harming the jobs market or the economy more broadly.
Officials now expect to cut the benchmark rate by half a percentage point to 3.75-4 percent next year, less than the full percentage point cut projected in the September "dot plot." Four officials made one or no additional cuts the following year.
Most saw the policy rate falling to 3.25-3.5 percent by the end of 2026, higher than forecast three months ago.
They also raised their forecasts for inflation after food and energy prices were cut to 2.5 and 2.2 percent in 2025 and 2026 respectively, while they predicted the unemployment rate would hold steady at 4.3 percent over the next three years. will remain
"The committee will carefully assess the balance of risks, the evolving outlook, and the extent of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate," it said.
In a sign that the Fed is preparing to abandon rate cuts at upcoming meetings, the FOMC revised its language regarding future changes in its policy settings in its statement.
Wednesday's decision was not the first this year to be opposed by a Fed official, after Michelle Bowman expressed disapproval of September's half-point cut. It was the first time since 2005 that a governor voted against a decision.
The quarter-point cut was widely expected by financial markets, but came amid debate among officials over how fast inflation is retreating toward the Fed's 2 percent target. The core personal consumption expenditure price index, the central bank's preferred inflation measure that excludes food and energy prices, rose at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in October.
The Fed kicked off a new rate-cutting cycle with a bumper half-point cut in September, but since then fears about the labor market have eased and the economic outlook has brightened. That healthy state of the U.S. economy has changed the calculus for officials as they try to settle on a "fair" rate that neither stifles growth nor raises it too high.
The central bank described the recent cuts as a "repositioning" of policy that reflects its success in keeping inflation down from a peak of around 7 percent in 2022.
On Wednesday, Powell said the Fed was in "a new phase in the process," suggesting that the bar for future cuts will be higher as rates approach expectations of neutral.
Fed officials raised that estimate for the neutral rate again, with the majority now penciling it in at 3 percent. This time last year, they had estimated it at 2.5 percent.
The Fed meeting comes just weeks before Trump returns to the White House, vowing to raise tariffs, deport immigrants and cut taxes and regulations. Economists recently The poll took place The policy mix could trigger a new bout of high inflation and hit growth, the Financial Times said.
Additional reporting by Eva Xiao in New York