China has continued its nuclear expansion, strengthened ties with Russia and increased military pressure against Taiwan over the past year, according to a new Defense Department report that examines actions escalating key areas of conflict with the U.S.
The report, released on Wednesday, also noted that a recent rash of corruption allegations at China's powerful Central Military Commission, which oversees the People's Liberation Army, is hurting Beijing's military growth and could slow its modernization drive.
A senior defense official said China had made progress in some of its programs but regressed in others.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the U.S. assessment, warned that Beijing is working to develop a more diverse and technologically sophisticated nuclear force. Even as the expected number of nuclear warheads continues to grow, China is expanding its targeting capabilities.
Beijing will be able to pursue more and different types of targets, inflict greater damage and have more options for multiple rounds of counterstrikes, the official said. The US is calling on China to be more transparent about its nuclear program, while warning that America will defend its allies and take appropriate steps in response.
According to the report, which provides the US's annual assessment of China's military power and is required by Congress, by mid-2024. China has had over 600 operational nuclear warheads, and the Pentagon expects it will have more than 1,000 by 2030. The Pentagon's estimate of China's current stockpile of nuclear warheads is about 100 higher than last year's report revealed, but that reflects a change in assessment, not the pace of production.
The Biden administration has worked to maintain a balance with China, building up the US military presence in the Asia-Pacific region to be ready to counter Beijing, while promoting increased communications between the two countries at the diplomatic and military levels.
This upswing in negotiations coincided with a reduction in coercive and risky interceptions of US aircraft from late 2023. compared to the previous two years. However, China still conducts what the US military considers "unsafe" flights near US and allied forces in the region.
The Pentagon's national defense strategy is built around the assessment that China poses the greatest challenge to U.S. security, and the threat from Beijing affects how the U.S. military is equipped and organized for the future.
Corruption in the PLA has led to the removal of at least 15 senior officials in a major upheaval in China's defense establishment.
"This wave of corruption affects every service in the PLA and may have shaken Beijing's credibility," the report said.
In June, China announced that former Defense Minister Li Shanfu and his predecessor Wei Fengge had been expelled from the ruling Communist Party and accused of corruption. Last month, another senior official, Miao Hua, was suspended and placed under investigation, according to China's Ministry of Defense.
The U.S. report pointed to an ever-increasing Chinese military presence around Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as its own. It said China's navy had been in the region more and that there had been increased air defense identification zone crossings on the island and major military exercises in the area.
Just last week, a large deployment of Chinese navy and coast guard ships in waters around Taiwan raised alarm as Taiwanese officials said it appeared China was faking a blockade. Officials said there were about 90 ships involved in what Taiwan described as two walls designed to demonstrate that the waters belong to China.
Taiwan seceded from Communist China in 1949. and rejected Beijing's demands to accept the unification. China says it will do so by force if necessary, and leaders have said they want to be ready to do so by 2027.
The United States is obligated under domestic law to help defend Taiwan and provide it with weapons and technology to deter invasion.
The island democracy has been a major source of tension between Washington and Beijing for decades and is widely seen as the most likely cause of a potentially catastrophic war between the US and China.
More generally, the report concluded that the PLA continues its drive to develop greater military capabilities, but "has made uneven progress toward its 2027 modernization milestone."
One area of expansion, the report said, is with unmanned aerial systems, which officials say are "rapidly approaching U.S. standards."
As for Russia, the report says China has been supportive Russia's war against Ukraine and sold Russia dual-use items that Moscow's military industry relies on. Dual-use items can be used for both civilian and military purposes.
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