President-elect Trump campaigners use tariffs as a tool to obtain more favorable international trade terms and bring in tax revenue, but they can affect the prices consumers pay for imported products.
Among the policies Trump has floated are blanket tariffs of 10% or 20% on all goods imported into the US, as well as a larger tariff of 60% on goods imported from China. He also said he would impose a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico. At a press conference on Monday, Trump and one of his nominees for a key Cabinet post signaled that they would using tariffs to obtain reciprocal trade terms with other countries.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick spoke at a press conference Monday with President-elect Trump and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, who announced the Japan-based firm would invest $100 billion in the U.S. Lutnick answered press questions about the administration's upcoming tariff plans and explained that Trump "has a very clear agenda for tariffs, and I think reciprocity is something that will be a key topic for us. How you treat us is how you should expect to be treated."
Trump weighed in and said, "Tariffs - used properly, which we will - and reciprocated with other countries, they will make our country rich... I've always said, to me, tariffs are the most beautiful word in the dictionary."
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The president-elect also dismissed concerns that tariffs could raise prices for consumers based on the experience of his first term, saying, "I don't have any inflation and I have massive tariffs on a lot of things."
Uncertainty about how the tariffs will be implemented and the impact of import tax on consumers is likely to continue until a new administration takes office on January 20, 2025, and begins moving forward with its preferred policies. Based on some of Trump's policy proposals from the presidential campaign, trade experts think there could be a significant price impact on consumers.
"Depending on the nature and the rate and how it's structured, it could be quite large," Clark Packard, a researcher at the Cato Institute's Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, told FOX Business about the tariffs' impact on consumer price. "He talked on the campaign trail about 10% to 20% tariffs on all imports, and then special duties like 60% on imports from China. If that goes into effect, you know it's going to raise consumer prices."
"I've seen studies showing that the price of a laptop, for example, will increase by about $350 and a smartphone by about $200," Packard said. "That assumes the full cost of the tariff is passed on to the retail buyer, but many of the best economic studies show that about 90% of the cost of the tariff is pushed back to the consumer."
Dr. Madhav Durbha, group VP of CPG and manufacturing at RELEX, told FOX Business, "Items like avocado, mango etc. fresh produce many sources from Mexico are particularly vulnerable to tariffs. Geographical and environmental constraints make it difficult to shift production, and these tariffs will translate directly into higher prices for consumers at the grocery store."
Durbha added that the US importing pharmaceuticals used in producing everyday drugs from China and that tariffs on such imports "could increase drug costs for consumers and disrupt supply chains, creating ripple effects across the healthcare industry."
He said so even though there were many clothes and shoes brands have used a "China plus one" strategy to diversify production into countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia, tariffs on China could potentially increase costs on those goods for consumers.
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Durbha added that a similar dynamic has been at play with consumer electronics, such as laptops and smartphones, which may be subject to price increases or availability delays despite increased production. moved from China to countries like India and Vietnam.
Packard also noted that imposing tariffs to tax imported goods would also affect American manufacturers and exporters, as foreign countries would likely impose retaliatory tariffs on US exports in response.
He explained that "40% to 50% of all imports are intermediate inputs that American firms use to make their products more globally competitive, so when you start raising the prices of inputs that American firms buy abroad, you make products ready to be less competitive in the global market."
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"When you impose tariffs, you're going to see retaliation from foreign governments," Packard explained. "So not only are you a manufacturer in the US and your prices have gone up because the goods you need have gone up in price, you're going to see higher tariff barriers when you go to export those products as well."
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