In a weekend where Bayern Munich, Barcelona, ​​Real Madrid and Juventus dropped points, the Premier League title chasers also stumbled.

Arsenal held Everton to a dismal goalless draw, while Liverpool managed to draw four-goal thriller with Fulham it feels like one point gained instead of two dropped. Manchester City were three minutes away from returning to the title race before Amad Diallo inspired Manchester United to Victory in the derby 2-1.

Chelsea, a side desperate to avoid any talk of a title race, were the only team at the sharp end of the table to collect all three points this weekend, despite doing their best to drop win over Brentford on Sunday night.

Here's how this disastrous round of matches played out to choose's statistically supported predictions.

Forming a pack chasing behind Liverpool moved up significantly this weekend. Chelseawho started the round as fourth favourites, leapfrogged Manchester City on the forecast.

The Blues boast a 5.5% chance of winning the title. "I don't even know what a title race is, to be honest," Nicolas Jackson joked after scoring the decisive goal in Sunday's 2-1 win that moved his side to within two points of top spot. "I'm not even looking at the table," the striker insisted. That could soon change if Chelsea continue to close the gap on Liverpool.

Chelsea remain the most likely to finish third (35.5%) and have a 5.3% chance of missing out on the top four altogether. Arsenal remain Liverpool's closest challengers, finishing above the Reds in 10.6% of the 10,000 simulations that Opta's advanced statistical model calculates.

The Gunners relied more and more on them set situations in the future, a worrying trend that was painfully obvious during a lukewarm stoppage on Saturday at home to Everton. Arteta's side have scored just 15 goals from open play in 16 top-flight matches - fewer than relegation-threatened Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Liverpool they have no problem finding the back of the net, even when reduced to ten players. Arne Slott's unstoppable side fell behind twice at home to Fulham on Saturday afternoon but emerged with a point and renewed momentum in the title race.

The Reds may be just two points clear of Chelsea - and a game in hand away to Everton after postponement of the derby - but the supercomputer gives Liverpool a whopping 82.0% chance of winning just their second title of the Premier League era.

Manchester Citychasing their fifth crown on the turn, have just a 1.9% chance of finishing atop the pile once again. In their last seven Premier League games since Halloween, Pep Guardiola's side have collected a paltry four points - the same number as bottom-placed Southampton sacked manager Russell Martin on Sunday.

There is little danger of Guardiola losing his job wherever City finish, but top spot is looking increasingly unlikely.

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