Last year, India overtook China to become the world's largest country, according to UN estimates.

With nearly 1.45 billion people now, you'd think the country would be quiet about having more children. But guess what? The conversation has suddenly picked up.

The leaders of two southern states - Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu - have recently called for more children.

Andhra Pradesh is offering incentives, citing low fertility rates and an aging population. The state too abolish its "two-child policy". for local body elections, and reports say neighboring Telangana may soon do the same. Tamil Nadu next door is also doing sounds similar, more exaggerated.

India's fertility rate has fallen dramatically - from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to the current level of two.

Fertility rates have fallen below the new standard of two births per woman in 17 of the 29 states and territories. (A replacement rate is one at which there are enough new births to maintain a stable population.)

The five southern states of India are leading India's demographic trend, achieving a new level of fertility far ahead of others. Kerala reached the milestone in 1988, Tamil Nadu in 1993, and the rest by the mid-2000s.

Today, the five southern states have total fertility rates below 1.6, with Karnataka at 1.6 and Tamil Nadu at 1.4. In other words, fertility rates in these states are in line with or lower than many European countries.

But these states fear that India's shifting demographics with different population shares between states will greatly affect electoral representation and state-wise allocation of parliamentary seats and federal revenue.

"They fear being punished for their effective population control policies, despite being better economic performers and contributing significantly to federal revenue," said Srinivas Goli, professor demographer at the International Institute for Population Sciences, to the BBC.

Southern states are also grappling with another major concern as India prepares for the first time separation of electoral seats in 2026 - the first since 1976.

This exercise redraws electoral boundaries to reflect population trends, reducing parliamentary seats for economically wealthy southern states. Because federal revenue is allocated according to state numbers, many fear this could deepen their financial struggles and limit policy-making freedom.

Demographers KS James and Shubhra Kriti project that populous northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar stand to gain more seats from attrition, while southern states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh could face losses, shifting further representation political.

There are many, including the Prime Minister Narendra Modihas indicated that changes in fiscal shares and allocation of parliamentary seats will not be transferred through.

"As a demographer, I don't think that states should be too concerned about these issues. They can be resolved through constructive negotiations between federal and state governments," said Mr. Goli. "My concern is elsewhere."

The main challenge, according to demographers, is India's rapid aging driven by declining fertility rates. While countries like France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years respectively to double their aging population from 7% to 14%, India is expected to reach the this milestone in just 28 years, says Mr. Goli.

This accelerated aging is linked to India's unique success in declining fertility. In most countries, better living standards, education, and urbanization will naturally reduce fertility as the number of live births improves.

But in India, fertility rates fell rapidly despite modest socio-economic progress, thanks to aggressive family welfare programs that encouraged small families through targets, incentives and disincentives.

The unexpected result? Take Andhra Pradesh, for example. Its fertility rate is 1.5, the same as Sweden, but its per capita income is 28 times lower, says Mr Goli. With raise a debt and limited resources, can such states support higher pensions or social security for an aging population?

Consider this. More than 40% of elderly Indians (60+ years) belong to the poorest wealth quartile - the bottom 20% of the population in terms of wealth distribution, according to the latest from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Report on the age of India.

In other words, Mr. Goli says, "India is getting old before it gets rich".

Fewer children also means a rising old age dependency ratio, leaving fewer carers for a growing older demographic. Demographers warn that India's healthcare, community centers and old-age homes are unprepared for this shift.

Urbanization, migration, and changing labor markets are further eroding traditional family support—India's strong point—leaving more and more elderly people behind.

While migration from populous states to less populous states may reduce the working age gap, it also raises anti-migration concerns. "Strong investments in prevention, palliative care, and social infrastructure to look after aging are urgently needed," says Mr. Goli.

As if the concerns of southern states were not enough, earlier this month the head of the Hindu nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (National Voluntary Organisation), the ideological backbone of Mr Modi's BJP - urged couples of at least three have children. Future India. "According to the science of population, when growth is below 2.1, a society dies by itself. No one destroys it," Mohan Bhagwat said in a recent statement. meeting.

Although Mr. Bhagwat's concerns may have some basis, they are not entirely correct, say a publicist. Tim Dyson, a demographer at the London School of Economics, told the BBC that after a decade or so, "very low fertility rates will continue to lead to rapid population decline".

A fertility rate of 1.8 births per woman leads to a slow, manageable population decline. But a rate of 1.6 or below could trigger "rapid, uncontrolled population decline".

"A smaller number of people will enter the reproductive - and prime working - ages, and this will be socially, politically and economically catastrophic. This is a demographic process and it is very difficult to reverse," said Mr Dyson.

This is already happening in some countries.

In May, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol announced the lowest birth rate in the country "national emergency" and announced plans for a special government ministry. Greece Fertility rate has fallen to 1.3half of what it was in 1950, prompting warnings from Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis about an "extraordinary" population threat.

But demographers say that urging people to have more children is boring. "Considering the social trends, including a significant reduction in gender differences as women's lives have become more like men's lives, this trend is unlikely to reverse," said Mr. Dyson.

Watch: Why do some in India want couples to have more children?

For Indian states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, grappling with a dwindling workforce, the key question is: who will step in to fill the gap? Developed countries, unable to reverse declining fertility, are focusing on healthy and active aging - extending working lives by five to seven years and increasing productivity in older populations.

Demographers say India needs to meaningfully extend the retirement age, and policies need to prioritize growing healthy years through better health screening, and stronger social security to ensure an active older population. and productive - potential. "money gain".

India also needs to better leverage its demographic share—economic growth that occurs when a country has a large working-age population. Mr. Goli believes that there is a window of opportunity until 2047 to stimulate the economy, create jobs for the working-age population, and allocate resources for aging people. "We only get 15-20% of the shares - we can do a lot better," he says.

The headline of this piece has been updated to better reflect the story.