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“There are only two of us left among the leaders. Right now, it's me and Vladimir Putin. This was the unprecedented decision of Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week.
Xi Jinping and Donald Trump may clash over the Turkish president's global ranking. On a regional level, however, Erdogan has a good claim to be one of the two strong leaders who are reshaping the Middle East. His hated rival, Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, is the second.
Erdogan's current arrogance flows from his role in Syria. Turkey was the only regional power to throw its full weight behind Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group that toppled the Assad regime. Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkey's intelligence services, visited Damascus a few days after HTS took power.
Erdogan has long aspired to rebuild Turkish power in the territories of the former Ottoman Empire. For him, ousting Assad opens a new avenue for regional influence. It potentially has a Domestic payment - Weakening the Kurds in Syria, easing Turkey's refugee problem and helping his bid to remain president after 2028.
Turkey's alliance with Islamist groups such as the HTS and the Muslim Brotherhood is seen as a serious threat by Israel and conservative Gulf monarchies. Israel has moved to destroy Syria's military capabilities, bomb its navy and air force, and seize territory beyond the Golan Heights, which Israel has occupied since 1967. has happened
The Israeli government characterized its moves as precautionary and defensive. But Netanyahu, like Erdogan, sees opportunities ahead. Speaking last week, he remarked: "Something tectonic has happened here, an earthquake that hasn't happened in a hundred years since the Sykes-Picot agreement." The reference to the British-French agreement of 1916 that divided the Ottoman Empire seems significant. With the Middle East in turmoil, advocates of a Greater Israel see an opportunity to redraw the region's borders. Aluf Ben of Haaretz writes that Netanyahu "appears to be seeking a legacy as the leader who expanded Israel's borders after 50 years of retreat".
The settler movement, well-represented in Netanyahu's coalition government, is pushing for Israel to retake parts of Gaza. The incoming Trump administration could give Israel the green light to formally annex parts of the occupied West Bank. And the "temporary" occupation of Syrian land may turn out to be permanent.
Next, Netanyahu will have a chance to settle the final reckoning with Iran. The Islamic Republic is at its most vulnerable position for decades. It faces domestic opposition and will be destabilized by the collapse of the Syrian dictatorship. Tehran has seen its allies Hamas, Hezbollah and now Assad crumble.
Iran may respond to the loss of its regional proxies with an accelerated drive to acquire nuclear weapons. But it could invite an attack by Israel. After the Netanyahu government's successful offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon — a campaign the Biden administration warned against — Israelis are in a confident, radical mood.
Over the past year, Israel has demonstrated its ability to fight on multiple fronts simultaneously – including Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran and now Syria. Israel is also the only nuclear-armed power in the region and, for now, has almost full US support.
After the devastation of the October 7 attacks by Hamas, Netanyahu's chances of going down in history as a successful leader seemed slim. Deeply controversial at home as well as abroad, he is currently on trial for corruption in Israel.
Like Erdogan, Netanyahu remains a ruthless political survivor. Each took power decades ago and considers himself a man of destiny. However, their dreams of regional dominance suffer from similar weaknesses. Israel and Turkey are non-Arab powers in the majority-Arab region. The Arab world has no appetite for a reconstituted Ottoman Empire. Israel remains an outside power in the Middle East, feared, distrusted and often hated.
Turkey and Israel also have too weak an economic base to have any real aspirations for regional dominance. Turkey's economy has been destroyed by inflation. For all its technological and military might, Israel is a small country of less than 10 million people.
The opposing ambitions of Erdogan and Netanyahu could easily collide in Syria. It risks becoming a battleground for competing regional powers as Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states also have interests at stake there.
Last week, as the Turks were celebrating the fall of Damascus and the Israelis were destroying the Syrian army, Saudi Arabia celebrated another peaceful achievement, being chosen as the host of the 2034 World Cup.
The Saudis and Gulf states probably feel more directly threatened by Turkey's Islamist alliance than by Israel's territorial ambitions. But Riyadh knows that Israel's attack on Gaza has terrified the Arab world. Moving closer to Netanyahu to stop Erdogan would be controversial, especially if the Israelis are simultaneously burying any prospect for a two-state solution with the Palestinians.
Israel and Turkey have powerful armies. But the Saudis, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have the financial firepower. Whatever path Riyadh decides to take, it could reshape the Middle East even more fundamentally than the actions of Erdogan and Netanyahu.