Trader on the New York Stock Exchange in November 2024.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to date on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
The Nasdaq jumps
US stocks mixed Friday ended. the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2% for the seventh consecutive day of losses. shares of Broadcom jump 24%, launch in trillion dollar valuation club. On Monday, the Asia-Pacific markets fell across the boardit reverses previous gains. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index it fell around 0.9%, leading to losses in the region.
Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates
The Bank of Japan is likely to leaving its benchmark interest rates untouched in his meeting from Wednesday to Thursday, a CNBC survey found. Of the 24 economists surveyed, 13 think the BOJ will not raise rates in December. The BOJ last raised rates in July.
Chinese consumers slow down shopping
of China retail sales in November grew by 3% from a year ago, according to National Statistics Office date released Monday. That figure missed the 4.6% increase expected by a Reuters poll, and is well below the 4.8% growth recorded in October. That said, October sales were boosted by China Singles Day shopping festival.
The President of South Korea impeached
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached on Saturday after 204 legislators in the National Assembly voted in favor of the motion. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will serves as acting president. On Sunday, Han spoke with US President Joe Biden, and the country's finance ministry said it would continue market monitoring.
(PRO) Keep an eye on rates and prices
Interest rates and inflation are in focus this week. The US Federal Reserve's rate-setting meeting ends on Wednesday, while the personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation because reflects how consumers actually spend money, is out on Friday.
The bottom line
Almost certainly the way to figure out where the markets are going is to make a prediction - and ignore it.
the S&P 500 may have fallen 0.6% last week, snapping a three-week winning streak. But it is still up nearly 27% this year, breaking the 6,000 level for the first time in its upward journey.
That's well ahead of predictions made by top financial strategists at the end of 2023, notes CNBC's Pia Singh. JPMorgan's chief US equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, for example, expected the broad index to close the year at just 4,200. Even the most optimistic forecast ā a target of 5,200 from John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer ā didn't catch the stock's exuberant rally this year.
And that's why even though market strategists anticipate that the S&P will end 2025 at 6,630, according to the average forecast from the CNBC Market Strategist Surveyinvestors should take it with a pinch of salt. Granted, there is bubbling positive sentiment among investors, thanks to Trump's high regard for the stock market as a barometer for his presidential term, steadily easing monetary policy, the prospect of corporate taxes lower, among other factors.
But, in the markets - as in life - the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.
Inflation could make an unwanted return ā like measles and possibly polio in the United States ā because of the tariffs promised by Trump and the tit-for-tat trade wars that could result. Indeed, inflation already "looks a little stuck," he said Goldman Sachs' vice president Robert Kaplan, formerly president of the Dallas Fed.
Still, despite my skepticism about the forecast, I would like if Bank of America's Savita Subramanian proves to be prescient in predicting the market. Imagine ending 2025 with Subramanian's target S&P of 6,666.
ā CNBC's Sarah Min, Pia Singh, Sean Conlon and Samantha Subin contributed to this report.